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Opinion
September 14, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 19
metre Iran-Armenia gas pipeline, which runs through to Meghri, to effectively forestall any further initiatives on that front.
Tehran and Yerevan have also discussed con- structing a $3.7bn railway that would run through Armenia to Georgia’s Black Sea coast. But here too the project stalled as difficulties in securing financing arose.
The stark reality is that Russia, which is keep-
ing a close eye on Armenia’s direction under its post-people’s revolution government, owns most of Armenia’s existing railway infrastructure and as a result can block any such pro-Iranian initiative. An- other factor is that neighbouring Azerbaijan already has the necessary gas pipeline infrastructure run- ning through Georgia to Turkey. The new Baku-Tbi- lisi-Kars railway, meanwhile, will only strengthen Iran’s willingness to take the Azerbaijan route.
Back to Meghri FEZ
Despite the Meghri FEZ’s ambitious projections, past experiences show the zone will face clear constraints. For example, other two other eco- nomic zones, the Meridian and Alliance FEZs in Yerevan, established in 2014, have between them created just 94 jobs and garnered interest from as few as 17 companies.
Meghri’s fortunes may also suffer as the Baku- Tehran cooperation gains real momentum. Iran cannot very well ignore the business potential offered it by gas-rich Azerbaijan’s already existent infrastructure.
In January 2017, Tehran was the recipient of a $500mn loan from Baku to construct a 205-kilo- metre railway connecting the Azerbaijani and Iranian railway networks (the Rasht-Astara line). According to the deal, Azerbaijan will lease the line for 15 years and the terminals for 25 years. Both Iran and Azerbaijan claim that their bilateral trade will consequently increase to 5mn tonnes per year. This will further limit any potential for more trade corridors running from Iran to the Black Sea via Armenian territory.
Yerevan needs as many imaginative, strenuous and effective efforts in trade and investment as it can devise. Otherwise, the Armenians, it seems, could remain rather too boxed in for a long time to come.
Emil Avdaliani teaches history and international relations at Tbilisi State University and Ilia
State University. He has worked for various international consulting companies and currently publishes articles focused on military and political developments across the Eurasian continent.
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