Page 17 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

North Macedonia, an EU candidate country since 2005, remains mired in its accession process. Bulgaria imposed a veto in 2020, citing disputes over history, language and the treatment of ethnic Bulgarians in North Macedonia. Although the veto was lifted in 2022 on the condition that North Macedonia amends its constitution to include ethnic Bulgarians in its preamble, the then Social Democrat-led government failed to secure the required two-thirds parliamentary majority due to VMRO-DPMNE’s opposition.
Since coming to power, VMRO-DPMNE has expressed readiness to find a resolution and reiterated its commitment to EU integration. However, the party insists on guarantees that Bulgaria will not impose further ultimatums during the negotiation process, which could cause additional delays.
Meanwhile, Albania, which began its EU journey alongside North Macedonia, officially opened its first negotiation chapter on October 15, 2024. This milestone highlights the diverging paths of the two nations, with North Macedonia’s progress stalled by constitutional reform challenges and lingering disputes with Bulgaria.
Fitch expects the coalition to remain stable and maintain a pro-EU policy approach. Amid ongoing tensions with Bulgaria, tangible progress towards EU membership will still take several years, in our view, Fitch said. The rating agency views as positive the technical support and policy assistance that North Macedonia receives from the EU as part of this process.
1.9 Politics – Romania
The political outlook in Romania turned particularly complex and uncertain at the end of 2024 after the mixed outcome of the parliamentary elections on December 1 and the annulment of the presidential elections amid allegations of Russian interference.
The former “grand coalition” is trying to stay in office, but lacks a robust majority. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and National Liberal Party (PNL) lost their majority in parliament, but are forming a fragile ruling coalition with the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR). A government resulting from this alliance can only be seen as an acting cabinet, until the presidential elections will add more clarity to the political landscape. Early parliamentary elections cannot be ruled out. As the much-needed public sector and fiscal reforms are thus put on ice, the country's credibility among investors is at risk.
The outcome of the presidential elections, not only their timing, is highly
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