Page 19 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

November 2024 train station collapse in Novi Sad.
The main political risk for the government in 2025 will likely come from public opposition to the exploitation of the country’s vast lithium reserves. 2024 saw a repeat of the 2021 mass protests against Rio Tinto’s controversial lithium mining project in the Jadar river valley. This issue has the potential to re-ignite in 2025, galvanising diverse groups in opposition to the government.
Recurrent protests reveal deep discontentment among certain sections of the electorate, but are unlikely to lead to serious political upheaval. The government’s power remains firmly entrenched, with control over key institutions and the media. The opposition is unpopular and disorganised, and while anger against the government is palpable, there is no unified strategy for capitalising on it.
Politics in 2025 will remain polarised between the entrenched ruling party and the divided opposition.
Bitter exchanges between members of the SNS and the opposition have become a frequent occurrence, sometimes resulting in physical altercations. Such incidents underscore the fractious nature of the country’s political landscape and raise concerns about the erosion of civility and decorum in its political institutions.
Serbia’s polarised polity brings into question its democratic reform efforts and broader bid to join the European Union.
As part of its negotiations with the EU, Serbia is required to carry out reforms in four main areas as part of negotiating Chapter 23 of the EU's acquis, which deals with fundamental rights, the rule of law, the judiciary and corruption. Some progress has been made, but work is still needed to implement key reforms.
Serbia brought itself closer to the EU in 2024 by promising the bloc access to its vast lithium reserves.
In July 2024, Serbia signed a strategic partnership with the EU in raw materials; i.e. lithium. The memorandum guarantees the EU access to the critical mineral used in mobile batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), which is crucial for the EU’s green transition, and also for Germany’s car industry.
The lithium deal demonstrates that Serbia remains wedded to the EU, even as it seeks to maintain good relations with other powers. The deal could give new impetus to Serbia’s accession negotiations with the EU in 2025, which have been on hold now for some time.
19 SE Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com