Page 22 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

2.1.1 GDP growth
Albania’s 2025 budget is based on projected growth of 3.9% in 2025, driven by domestic demand, private consumption and investment, according to the budget plan presented by Finance Minister Petrit Malaj at the end of October.
That is slightly higher than forecasts from international financial institutions (IFIs).
The European Commission forecasts that Albania’s economy will grow by 3.8% in 2024, slightly higher than its earlier prediction of 3.3%.
The growth is similar to the 3.9% recorded in 2023, with household consumption being the main driver. However, weaker exports and rising imports are expected to weigh on economic expansion. By 2025, Albania’s GDP growth is projected to slow to 3.6%, further decreasing to 3.5% in 2026.
According to the World Bank, Albania's economy is set to maintain strong growth in 2024, with a forecast of 3.3%, supported by robust private consumption, tourism and construction.
Looking beyond 2024, the World Bank expects Albania’s economy to expand by 3.4% each in 2025 and 2025. The development bank has kept its forecasts for 2024 and 2025 unchanged while lowering that for 2026 by 0.1 of a percentage point (pp).
The World Bank highlighted that the country's medium-term prospects depend on the pace of global economic recovery and the implementation of structural reforms. "Unlocking further growth is conditional on the swift implementation of the government’s program, anchored in the EU accession aspiration," the report said, stressing the need for continued reforms in governance and the business environment to boost productivity.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) raised Albania's 2024 economic growth forecast to 3.5% in the autumn, up by 0.2 pp from its previous projection.
"Private consumption and public investment showed strong growth," an EBRD report stated. However, it also highlighted a 30% drop in goods exports, due to the appreciation of the Albanian lek and weak external
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