Page 24 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

manufacture of food products accounted for 11.7% of sales, up slightly from 11.4% the previous year. The extraction of crude petroleum made up 10.5% of total sales, a decrease from 11.2% in 2022.
Macroeconomic data from INSTAT for the second quarter of 2024 indicated an 8.91% decline in the industry, electricity and water sector. This drop had a negative impact on GDP growth, dragging it down by 0.96 of a percentage point (pp).
2.2 Macroeconomy – Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bosnia & Herzegovina key economic figures and forecasts
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 16.0 17.0 18.0 17.4 18.8 19.7 25.5
Real GDP (% y/y) 3.2 3.7 2.8 -3.1 7.5 2.4 2.2
Industrial output (% y/y) 3.1 1.6 -5.5 -6.2 10.7 1.7 -3.8
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 38.7 34.7 32.6 33.7 31 29.5 13.2
Consumer prices (avg, % y/y) 0.8 1.4 0.6 -1.1 2.0 10.5 6.1
Consumer prices (eop, % y/y) 0.7 1.6 -0.1 -3 7.4 4.2 2.2
General budget balance (% of GDP) 2.6 2.2 1.9 -5.3 -0.3 -0.4 -1.2
Public debt (% of GDP) 25.6 24.2 22.7 25.1 24.1 20.3 17.9
Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.8 -3.2 -2.6 -2.8 -1.5 -4.4 -2.3 Source: Agency for statistics of Bosnia & Herzegovina, IMF, CBBH
2.2.1 GDP growth
Despite political crises, Bosnia’s economy is doing well and remains quite resilient to external and internal shocks. Although high inflation affected the economic growth in 2023, it picked up in 2024 and is expected to grow further in 2025 and 2026.
According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Bosnia’s economy should expand by 3% in 2025 from an estimated 2.8% in 2024. However, the EBRD also noted that downside risks to its forecast come from the lack of coordination between Bosnia’s two entities, which impedes structural reforms and delays the implementation of major capital investments.
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