Page 27 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

2.3.1 GDP growth
Despite the political uncertainty, Bulgaria’s economic growth is
expected to pick up slightly in 2025 compared to 2024.
The World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expect that Bulgaria’s GDP will expand by 2.2% in 2024 but will speed up to 2.8% or 2.9% in 2025.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicts 2.8% economic growth in 2025.
The European Commission sees the 2025 GDP expansion at 2.9% and expects it to slightly speed up to 3% in 2026.
According to the World Bank, in 2026 the economy would slightly slow down to 2.7% growth, while the OECD anticipates growth of 2.6%.
The International Monetary Fund has a slightly more pessimistic forecast for 2025, setting the GDP growth at 2.5%, but still it would be higher compared to the expected 2.3% growth in 2024.
Bulgaria’s central bank has set its projection between the forecasts of international institutions, projecting economic growth at 2.5% in 2025. However, it has the most optimistic forecast for 2026, of 3.4% economic growth.
Despite the slight differences in their expectations for Bulgaria’s 2025 economic growth, all institutions say it will be driven mainly by private consumption, which will be boosted by lowering inflation and wage hikes.
2.3.2 Industrial production
Bulgaria’s industry remained negatively affected by the global economic crisis caused by the Russian war in Ukraine and the Israeli war against Hamas. This negative trend is likely to continue through 2025 as the international situation is not expected to change significantly.
According to the latest available statistics office data, industrial production decreased by 1.6% y/y in October, resuming the downward trend since the start of 2023 that was interrupted only in September 2024, when it rose by 1.2% y/y.
Manufacturing output shrank by 0.1% y/y in October, after falling by 1.9% y/y in September. Within manufacturing, the biggest increase was registered for tobacco (up 23.8% y/y). The manufacture of automobiles, semi-trailers and trailers declined the most in October, by 29% y/y.
27 SE Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com