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2.7 Macroeconomy – Montenegro
Montenegro key economic figures and forecasts
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 4.3 4.7 5.0 4.1 4.9 5.9 7
Real GDP (% y/y) 4.7 5.1 4.1 -15.3 13 6.4 6.3
Industrial output (% y/y) -4.2 22.4 -6.3 -0.9 4.9 -3.3 6.4
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 16.1 15.2 15.1 17.9 16.6 14.7 13.1
Real wages (% y/y) -0.2 -2.3 0.4 2.1 -0.9 18.4 2.4
Producer prices (avg, % y/y) 0.4 1.7 2.4 -0.1 1.3 11.2 6.2
Consumer prices (avg, % y/y) 2.4 2.6 0.4 -0.3 2.4 13 8.6
General budget balance (% of GDP) -6.8 -6.2 -1.8 -10.9 -1.9 -4.9 0.2
Current account balance (% of GDP) -16.0 -17.0 -14.3 -26.0 -9.2 -10.2 -11.6 Source: central bank, statistics office, IMF
2.7.1 GDP growth
Montenegro’s economy has been performing relatively well compared to its Western Balkan peers, mainly thanks to the strong tourism sector and high private consumption. According to Moody’s, investments will also remain a key driver for economic growth with a focus on investments in the energy and tourism sectors, as well as in transport infrastructure.
Moody’s also expects that Montenegro’s EU integration will improve the country’s real growth potential, which is estimated at 3% in the medium term.
However, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects that Montenegro’s economy will expand by just 2.9% in 2025, significantly below the projected 3.8% growth for 2024, which was mainly due to the lower 2023 base.
The World Bank has a significantly more optimistic projection for 2025, expecting Montenegro’s economy to grow by 3.5%, slightly up from the projected 3.4% rise in 2024. In the medium term, Montenegro’s economic growth should be supported by the country’s progress towards EU membership.
35 SE Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com