Page 36 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has an even more positive outlook for a 3.7% economic growth in 2025, unchanged from the estimated rise in 2024, while the European Commission’s projections are for 4.2% growth in 2025 and 3.9% in 2024.
2.7.2 Industrial production
Montenegro’s industrial sector started recovering in 2021 following the decline in 2020 caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. After falling in the second quarter of 2023, it picked up and posted a strong recovery for the rest of the year. However, in 2024 the performance of the industrial sector again started worsening, mainly affected by the global economic crisis.
The same trend is expected in 2025 as the world economy will remain strongly affected by the Russian war in Ukraine and fighting in the Middle East.
The country’s industrial production decreased by an annual 4.5% in the third quarter of 2024 easing from a 20.6% y/y fall in the previous quarter, according to the latest available statistics office data. Mining and quarrying increased by 4.8% y/y in the third quarter, while the output in the manufacturing sector fell by 2.7% y/y. The electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sector decreased by 10.7% y/y in the period under review.
In the first nine months of 2024, industrial production posted a 6% y/y decline, mainly due to the 20.5% y/y fall in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning sectors.
At the same time, industrial sales in Montenegro moved down by 0.9% y/y in the second quarter and jumped by 20.2% from the previous quarter. In the first nine months of the year, industrial sales increased by 2.4% y/y.
36 SE Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com