Page 51 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

BGN9.27bn with non-EU countries (up 56.3% y/y).
3.4 External Environment – Croatia
Croatia's external trade environment in 2024 has been characterised by a persistent trade deficit, with imports consistently surpassing exports. From January to September 2024, the country recorded a foreign trade deficit of €13.9bn, with exports totaling €17.5bn and imports reaching €31.4bn. This resulted in an export-to-import coverage ratio of 55.6%. In September 2024, the trade deficit stood at €1.4bn.
The Croatian National Bank projects that the current and capital account surplus will decrease to 3.8% of GDP in 2024, down from higher levels in previous years. This decline is attributed to reduced inflows from the EU budget and an expanding foreign trade deficit driven by rising domestic demand.
Fitch Ratings anticipates a shift from a current account surplus of 1.2% of GDP in 2023 to a modest deficit of 0.7% between 2024 and 2026. This change is expected due to strong domestic demand and a gradual recovery in the external environment. However, these deficits are projected to be comfortably financed by capital account inflows, primarily from EU funds, and steady FDI.
3.5 External Environment – Kosovo
Kosovo has a small domestic market and limited industrial output, with
imports consistently exceeding exports.
Kosovo posted a trade deficit of €493mn in October, rising by an annual 10.4%, according to data from the statistics agency, ASK. Exports/imports coverage was 15%.
In October, the value of exported goods amounted to €87.3mn, an increase of 8.6% compared to the same month in 2023. Meanwhile, the import value reached €580.3mn, up by 10.1% y/y.
Based on export data by primary categories, base metals accounted for 22.6% of overall exports, plastics and tyres made up 12.5%, prepared foods, beverages and tobacco represented 11.8% and mineral products contributed 10.9%.
In terms of imports, mineral products constituted 14.1%, transport equipment accounted for 13.2%, machinery represented 12% and prepared foods, beverages and tobacco made up 11%.
In 2023, Kosovo recorded a trade deficit of €5.1bn, marking a 7.1% increase compared to 2022. Total exports amounted to €863.1mn, while imports reached €5.9bn, with exports covering just 14.6% of imports. A year-on-year comparison of export data shows a 6.2% decline in Kosovo's goods exports, further worsening the country's
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