Page 50 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

deficit of 4.9% of GDP in 2025, from an estimated deficit of 4.8% of GDP in 2024. The current account deficit is seen at 4.9% of GDP in 2025 and at 3.8% of GDP in 2029.
The World Bank expects that the current account deficit will reach 3.6% of GDP in 2026 due to higher imports of consumer goods.
According to the latest available central bank data, Bosnia’s current account deficit expanded by 85.2% y/y to BAM1.42bn (€724.3mn) in the first half of 2024. The primary income account surplus expanded by 35.5% y/y to BAM1.2bn in H1. The surplus on the services account grew by 5.5% y/y to BAM2.8bn.
The deficit of the financial account jumped by 136.9% to BAM1.17bn in the first half of 2024. Net FDI totalled -BAM890.4bn, with portfolio investments reaching BAM181.7mn versus BAM120.2mn a year earlier. Other investments were -BAM653.62mn versus BAM1.25bn a year ago.
Bosnia’s foreign trade deficit amounted to BAM10.5mn (€5.4mn) in the first ten months of 2024, up by 15% y/y, according to statistics office data. Exports decreased by 4.8% y/y to BAM13.39bn, whereas imports moved up 3% y/y to BAM23.87bn. The coverage of imports by exports was 56.1%, down from 60.7% a year earlier.
The EU remained Bosnia’s main trading partner. Despite that, exports to the bloc declined by 4.6% y/y to BAM9.86bn in January-October, and imports increased 4.3% y/y to BAM14.18bn. Exports to CEFTA countries stood at BAM2.275bn, down by 13.1% y/y, while imports increased by 3.6% y/y to BAM2.83bn.
3.3 External Environment – Bulgaria
The IMF has projected that Bulgaria will have a current account deficit of 1.7% of GDP in 2025, compared with an expected deficit of 1% for 2024. In 2029, the country’s current account deficit should fall to 0.3% of GDP.
According to the latest available central bank data, Bulgaria’s current account posted a surplus of €924.2mn (0.9% of GDP) in the first nine months of 2024, compared with a surplus of €773.25mn reported a year earlier.
At the same time, Bulgaria’s foreign trade deficit increased by 32.1% y/y to €5.1bn (BGN9.88bn) in the first ten months of 2024, with both imports and exports falling, according to the latest available statistics office data. Trade has been on an upward trend since 2022 despite the Russian war in Ukraine and this could be expected for 2025 as well.
Bulgaria posted a trade deficit of BGN611.9mn with EU member states (compared with a deficit of BGN1.55bn a year earlier) and a deficit of
50 SE Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com