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August 31, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 10
lowing that initiative that Mirziyoyev went on to offer to mediate peace talks between Kabul and the Taliban.
The Taliban subsequently stated that it had estab- lished a political office in the Uzbek capital, with the aim of developing better ties and demonstrat- ing that they had no intention of supporting local insurgent groups.
During Mirziyoyev’s mid-May visit to the White House, the situation in Afghanistan proved to be the primary point of discussion between the Uz- bek president and US counterpart Donald Trump. The amount of influence this may have had dur- ing recent US talks with the Taliban is unknown, but it remains clear that Uzbekistan’s interests in Afghan stability go beyond surface-level chatter. Alas, good intentions alone will not be sufficient in building a safe and secure Afghanistan.
"Do or die" for Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan has committed to covering 85% of the construction costs for TAPI. And that is some- thing of a problem as the remote nation presently appears to be struggling to cover a range of crucial budget costs. The Turkmen state is believed to be close to a full-blown economic crisis, or even col- lapse, given lost profits caused by the effect of the previous oil and gas price slumps and longstand- ing difficulties in diversifying gas exports beyond supplies to China. TAPI amounts to a “do-or-die” project for the Turkmen — the worst performers in Freedom House's Nations in Transit report — and its failure could bring about the demise of both Turkmenistan and Afghan peace hopes.
Things may not be as grim as they sound, never- theless. China and Uzbekistan’s support for the pipeline will certainly ease the project’s progress and the TAPI Consortium’s plan to split the cost of the project between two phases shows promise. With the objective of obtaining additional financ-
ing, the consortium has divided the TAPI con- struction into a pair of phases instead of the previ- ously planned single phase. The construction in the first phase is to complete the pipeline without compressors. That will reduce costs but lead to cuts in gas volumes. Once the pipeline starts gen- erating sufficient cashflow, the consortium will raise financing for the second phase in order to install 11 compressors. This will allow the project to gain “momentum with the Chinese,” according to Pakistani officials.
Concerns over the security of the TAPI project have, of course, not yet dissolved. The Natural Resources Monitoring Network (NRMN) earlier this year raised concerns over the growing se- curity threat posed to TAPI by ongoing fighting in provinces through which the pipeline is to pass.
It cited fierce fighting in the centre of the city of Farah in western Afghanistan as evidence that the Afghan government lacks the will to take security measures seriously enough.
The fighting at Farah does not necessarily imply the Taliban does not regard its pipeline security commitments with the necessary sincerity, but the hostilities, along with a case in which five TAPI-af- filiated mine-clearance workers were killed in an attack during May, make some observers scepti- cal as to the viability of the investment.
These risks aside, it is the efforts to bring about far more Central Asian integration coupled with China’s enormous OBOR initiative that are cur- rently the best opportunities in terms of priming tools that will bring the Taliban to the table. Short of that, the poppy fields and long fight with the militant group are not going away any time soon. Neither the US, nor Russia, which recently made a probably doomed attempt to join the bandwagon in hosting Afghan talks after being knocked back by Washington and Kabul, can stem the conflict via diplomacy alone.