Page 6 - TURKRptDec22

2.0 Politics 2.1 Watchlist
● Global liquidity: The Fed’s balance sheet ceased breaking records. A record $8.97 trillion was registered as of April 12. As of November
15, it stood at $8.63 trillion.
The Reverse Repo (RRP) account (money supply that is parked back at the Fed by banks) stood at $2.07 trillion as of November 23. A record $2.43 trillion was registered on September 30.
The Treasury General Account (TGA) (money supply that is parked back at the Fed by the government) stood at $479bn as of November 23.
In November so far, cryptocurrency markets have sunk. This does not mean the trend will repeat elsewhere but cryptocurrencies have been recently emerging as an initial indicator for market moves.
On December 14, the Fed is scheduled to release its last rates decision of 2022. At some point, the new year rally, which occasionally lasts through February, should begin.
Before the new year rally, a serious descent in the financial markets is awaited.
On November 10, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics said that annual CPI inflation in the US declined from 8.2% in September to 7.7% in October (9.1% in June). Since June, US inflation has been declining.
As of November 27, the average gasoline price in the US was up 5% y/y to $3.56 per gallon (Record: $5.02 on June 14).
The market expectation for October inflation was standing at 8%. The market attempted to take the better-than-expected reading as a reason for a short-lived bounce in the bear market.
To stress, this is a bear market. The prices of financial papers and assets (equities, bonds, real estate, commodities and so on) are caught in a declining trend despite some bounces of recovery, while the USD index and interest rates are in a rising trend.
6 TURKEY Country Report December 2022 www.intellinews.com