Page 9 - TURKRptJun22

The FAO food price index declined for the second consecutive month from 158.5 in April to 157.4 points in May, up 23% y/y (Record high: 159.7 in March). The cereal price index was up 2% m/m and 56% y/y in May.
As of June 5, Brent was up 68% y/y to $121 while Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures was higher by 222% y/y.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) was higher by 41% y/y at 134. The USD/Turkish lira (TRY) pair was up 90% y/y to 16.4.
● April 28: The central bank hiked its expectation for end-2022 official inflation to 43% from the previous figure of 23% given in the January inflation report.
The upper limit on the official inflation forecast was also moved up, taking the expectation to 47% from 28%.
The authority expects inflation to peak at below the 75%-level in May and to fall across the remainder of the year.
The guidance was based on the assumption that the Turkish lira (TRY) will not experience another crash. The USD/TRY is up 12% compared to 14.79 registered on April 28.
● July 28: New quarterly inflation report and updated inflation forecasts will be released.
● July 4: Official inflation for June.
● June 23: Monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting decision at 14h
(?) Istanbul time. It is expected to hold its policy rate constant at 14%.
May 26: Hold at 14%.
Erdogan has already launched mortgage campaigns at a monthly rate of 0.89%. He also launched commercial loan campaigns at single-digit annual costs.
● Lira loans flow
In May, net lira creation via loans broke a fresh record with Turkish lira (TRY) 217bn ($13bn).
9 TURKEY Country Report June 2022 www.intellinews.com