Page 9 - TURKRptOct22

The FAO food price index declined for the sixth consecutive month from 138 points in August to 136 in September, up 6% y/y (Record high: 159.7 in March).
As of October 7, Brent was up 20% y/y to $98 while Dutch TTF November 2022 Natural Gas Futures contract was higher by 62% y/y to €156/MWh ($1.16/m3).
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) was higher by 15% y/y at 117. The USD/Turkish lira (TRY) pair was up 110% y/y to 18.58.
● On July 28, the central bank hiked its expectation for end-2022 official inflation to 60% (upper limit: 64%) from the previous figure of 43% given in the April inflation report.
The authority expected inflation to peak at below the 90%-level in October and to sharply fall across the remainder of the year.
The guidance was based on the assumption that the Turkish lira (TRY) will not experience another crash. As of October 7, the USD/TRY was up 4% compared to 17.9 on July 29.
● October 27: New quarterly inflation report and updated inflation forecasts will be released.
● November 3: Official inflation for October.
● October 20: Monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting decision at
14h (?) Istanbul time.
September 22: Cut by 100bp to 12%. August 18: Cut by 100bp to
13%.
Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, wants Turkey’s policy rate to stand in the single digits by end-2022, he said on September 28 during a televised interview.
Turkey’s monetary policy committee (MPC) has three more meetings scheduled for the remainder of 2022. They are to take place on October 20, November 24 and December 22.
9 TURKEY Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com