Page 55 - bne magazine September 2020 russia melting

bne September 2020
Opinion 55
not enough to ensure the stability of the currency). The list of possible triggers is long and such triggers often grow out of humble beginnings.
Constitution
The only way out of the impasse is to negotiate a new Constitution, says Shraibman. It is only by laying out the rules in a new constitution that a practical workable solution to the current clash of wills can be overcome. And it needs to be done quickly.
Shraibman makes the radical suggestion that Belarus should be changed from a republic to parliamentary democracy.
“Neither Tikhanovskaya, nor [her jailed husband Sergey] Tikhanovsky, nor [the president’s son] Lukashenko Jr., nor Prime Minister [Roman] Golovchenko, nor [jailed opposition leader Viktor] Babariko, nor [exiled presidential candidate Valery] Tsepkalo, nor Mother Teresa or the Pope [should get all the power]. That Constitution is a path to the abyss, because it makes the fate of a nation dependent on the whims of one person. The country can no longer take such risks,” Shraibman says.
Once the new constitution is in place, following a rapid referendum, then it will by its nature mandate fresh elections that will be fought on party lines.
The beauty of this idea is that Lukashenko himself has been talking about changing the constitution for several years and brought it up again after the protests broke out, offering it as a sop in a half-hearted attempt to placate the angry crowds.
“Here, unexpectedly, even for me, I find myself agreeing with Lukashenka's words. The most sustainable way is to quickly reform the Constitution and restart the government through new elections after that,” Shraibman said.
Mediation
None of the parties involved in this negotiation trust each other, or even recognise each other's authority to negotiate, so the only possibility of getting the talks off the ground will have to be mediation.
External mediation is a non-starter.
“If you involve Moscow or Brussels, Washington or Beijing, the parties will become even more suspicious of each other and assume there will be an attempts to surrender the country to someone. External mediation should be discarded due to the fact that the crisis in Belarus is of a purely internal nature,” Shraibman said.
But if you can only use domestic mediators, who is an impartial domestic authority with enough gravitas to oversee these talks?
“The best we have, I think the churches. I am not immune
to suspicions, and someone may be tempted to consider the [Russian Orthodox Church] as a conduit of Russian interests,
and the Catholic Church of Polish interests. A compromise could be a collective mediator from the leaders of five Belarusian confessions: Orthodox, Catholics, Protestants, Jews and Muslims,” Shraibman said.
Shraibman concludes that the fewer conditions the better, but there should be a shortlist of preconditions before the talks start: police violence, arrests and repression must stop; and there should be an indefinite guarantee of the physical safety and immunity from prosecution for Alexander Lukashenko and his family.
Shraibman comments: “No matter how unpleasant both of these goodwill gestures from each side are, without them it will be simply impossible to sit down at the table.”
Outside mediators do have a role in ensuring both the constitutional referendum and the election that follows are free and open. The Central Election Commission (CEC) would have to open its doors to numerous international observers and the commission expanded to continue representatives from all the parties involved.
And in another fairly radical idea, but typical for the more balanced view of eastern Europe geopolitics the Belarusians have, Shraibman suggests an International Belarus Assistance Fund be set up with $3bn-$5bn that will be released once
all the conditions of the new constitution and elections have been fulfilled. The money for the fund should come from
“Here, unexpectedly, even for me, I find myself agreeing with Lukashenka's words. The most sustainable way is to quickly reform the Constitution”
contributions from Russia, the EU and the US both to show their non-partisan solidarity with the people of Belarus and also provide a practical incentive for the participants in the negotiations to complete a deal.
Shraibman adds the outlines of a foreign policy should also be agreed as part of this process, but the key element is the country remains committed to its international obligations, it doesn't favour one direction east or west over the other and Belarusian sovereignty remains immutable.
“I know how illusory every paragraph of my article can seem today. But it is better that at the time when the alternatives to dialogue are civil war, complete ruin or external occupation, we have at least a rough outline for salvation. Good luck to all of us."
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