Page 18 - RusRPTNov23

“analysts expect a smaller consolidated budget deficit in 2023–2024 at 2.1% of GDP (-0.2 p.p.) and 1.5% of GDP (-0.1 p.p.), respectively. analysts’ deficit forecasts for 2025-2026 are unchanged at 1.0% of GDP,” the CBR said.
Exports of goods and services: Trade has been severely restricted by the international sanctions regime, but traders have been hard at work building new supply chains and most of the goods that disappeared in the early days of the war are now back on the shelves. However, with the trade disruptions and associated constrictions, trade volumes are flat and not expected to change much.
“No significant changes. Forecasts for 2023 have been slightly lowered to $484bn (-$5bn). In contrast, the forecasts for the following years have been increased to $508bn ($6bn) in 2024, $518bn ($3bn) in 2025 and $517bn ($7bn) in 2026. analysts expect that by the end of the forecast horizon exports will be 6% lower than in 2021,” the CBR said.
18 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com