Page 20 - RusRPTNov23

USD/RUB exchange rate: The ruble has also been on a rollercoaster ride this year and weakened continually since the start of the year, before starting to meltdown in the middle of August.
The CBR intervened with a big rate hike, but with $256bn of capital flight in 2022 and $27bn so far this year, coupled with weaking commodity exports, the currency remains weak. analysts say all else being equal the fair value for the ruble should be about RUB90 to the dollar but it is unlikely to reach that level until peace returns.
“analysts have revised downwards their forecasts for the exchange rate over the entire forecast horizon. analysts’ forecast for 2023 is 86.0 rubles per dollar (assuming the average exchange rate in October—December 2023 will be 96.0 rubles per dollar), 94.0 rubles per dollar for 2024, 97.5 rubles per dollar for 2025 and 98.2 rubles per dollar for 2026 (revised by 0.6–7.4% compared to the September survey).
20 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com