Page 52 - RusRPTNov23

5.0 External Sector & Trade 5.1 External sector overview
Global trade is slowing down. Several international organizations have updated their economic forecasts. Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its global economic forecast in the World Economic Outlook report. In it, it predicts that the world economy will grow by 3.0% this year and 2.9% next year. The forecast is in line with other forecasts, such as the ECB and OECD.
The growth is clearly lower than in the period before the COVID-19 pandemic from 2000 to 2019, when the average growth rate was 3.8%. According to the IMF, the growth of the global economy is weighed down by tight monetary policy aimed at slowing inflation, tightening fiscal policy, the long-term effects of the pandemic, the consequences of the Russian war of aggression, geo-economic fragmentation and extreme weather phenomena such as El Niño.
The IMF lowered China's growth forecasts for this year and next year slightly from its previous forecast, which was published in July. It predicts that China's economy will grow by 5.0% this year and 4.2% next year. According to it,
52 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com