Page 53 - RusRPTNov23

China's economic growth is weighed down by problems in the real estate sector, which also affect consumption and consumer confidence. At the same time, companies' production and investments are weighed down by weakened export demand and geopolitical uncertainty. The IMF raised Russia's growth forecast for this year to 2.2 percent due to the stronger-than-anticipated growth of public expenditures, investments, and private consumption. For next year, the IMF predicts that the Russian economy will grow by 1.1%.
The IMF predicts that world trade will grow by 0.9% this year and 3.5% next year. The World Trade Organization (WTO) also published its world trade forecast this month, which is well in line with the IMF's forecast. These are historically very slow growth figures, as between 2000 and 2019 World Trade grew by an average of 4.9% per year. Growth is weighed down by increased trade restrictions, but also by weak demand from the global economy and the focus of consumption on domestic services even more after the corona restrictions.
The table below shows recent growth forecasts for a few developing economies. The International Monetary Fund's forecasts extend all the way to 2028. Such long forecasts can be interpreted as reflecting more of the country's longer-term growth potential, where cyclical factors such as monetary and fiscal policy, for example, level out. More details about the IMF's global economic forecast from the Bank of Finland's blog .
The Economic Development Ministry expects Russia’s trade surplus to reach RUB145bn (1.5bn) this year, which is close to the average annual level in 2020–2021. It should continue rising in the medium term because export growth overshadows the increase of imports, Reshetnikov said.
Russia’s foreign trade surplus dropped more than 2.8-fold in January-September 2023 y/y to $87.8bn, according to preliminary estimates by the Central Bank.
Meanwhile, the surplus of the country’s payment account balance plunged almost 4.8-fold in the same period to $40.9bn.
"Foreign trade surplus in the third quarter 2023 amounted to $30.2bn, which is slightly higher than in the second quarter 2023 ($27.4bn) and in line with the first quarter 2023. Import of goods was flat compared with the previous period and equaled $75.9bn," the regulator said.
Aggregate deficit of primary and secondary income in the third quarter 2023 was $4.5bn, hitting the lowest level in quarterly dynamics of this year, mainly due to a decrease in the volume of dividend payments allocated by Russian companies in favor of non-residents, the Central Bank said.
53 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com