Page 25 - RusRPTDec18

3.2 Macro outlook
The Ministry of Economy predicts over long term:
● average 3.2-3.3% annual GDP growth through 2036
● oil prices will settle at $52 a barrel for 2025-2030 and rise to $54.9 a
barrel for 2031-2036
● Inflation is estimated at 4% annually.
● No "shocks" or "non-trend events" are included in the model's
predictions.
The World Bank had upgraded its outlook for Russia’s GDP growth rates for 2018 to 1.6% from 1.5%, according to Russia Economic Report released on Tuesday.
"Overall growth for 2018 is expected a notch above 2017, at 1.6% Consumption would support growth driven by higher demand for durable goods ahead of VAT rate increase," the report said.
The World Bank expects the oil price to average to $71 per barrel over the next three years.
"Oil prices are expected to average $71/bbl over the next three years, although there is considerable uncertainty to the forecast. Demand is expected to remain robust, with the International Energy Agency forecasting an increase of 1.4 mb/d, although their forecast has been revised down relative to earlier estimates as a result of weaker global growth and higher prices," the report said. In its June report on global economic growth prospects, the World Bank upgraded the oil price outlook for 2018 to $70 per barrel ($12 higher against its previous outlook), and for 2019 to $69 per barrel ($10 higher).
25 RUSSIA Country Report December 2018 www.intellinews.com