Page 27 - RusRPTDec18

4.0 Real Economy
Russia - Main Macro 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mar-2018 Indicators
Annual GDP (y/y, %)
3.41 1.34 0.64 -3.7 -0.5 1.5 1.5
GDP (per capita) (USD)
14,079 15,531 13,873 9,055 8,759 10,743 /
GDP: Private consumption expenditure (USD mn)
1,116,950 1,214,990 1,111,244 720,256 680,455 826,389 207,035
GDP: Public consumption expenditure (USD mn)
GDP: Gross fixed capital formation (USD mn)
391,097 425,831 375,081 244,282 236,063 283,696 79,723
471,337 496,982 428,573 276,240 280,350 342,294 58,303
GDP: Exports (USD mn)
524,697 527,266 497,834 343,543 285,772 357,816 102,956
GDP: Imports (USD mn)
Source: CEIC
4.1 Industrial production
317,177 314,967 286,669 182,719 182,347 227,502 54,820
Russia's industrial output in October posted 3.7% year-on-year growth,
bringing January-October industrial expansion to 3% y/y. The growth improved notably from 2.1% y/y seen in September and confirms previous PMI report that showed manufacturing sector gaining momentum in October.
However, although the industrial output is seen as "healthy" by the Sberbank CIB analysts on November 19, the boost as compared to September is largely attributed to low base (only 0.2% y/y growth effect posted for the same month of last year) and favourable calendar effects.
Extraction continued to be the best performer, amid the reports of increased oil output in Russia. Oil extraction was up 4.4% y/y, gas extraction by 0.9% y/y, while coal output increased by 3.4% in October. Sberbank expects growth in the extraction segment to slow to around 4% y/y in November and December.
VTB Capital notes a slowdown in the petrochemicals industry in October (as suggested by primary oil refining, which eased to +2.0% y/y growth, from +5.2% y/y in the previous month). bne IntelliNews believes that this could be a reaction to uncertainty with motor fuel market regulation seen in the past months.
As the weather conditions have been on average warmer than in 2017 for the second month in a row, electricity production also declined in line with the temperature trends, VTB notes. This kept the electricity generation sector in the red: in October, the slowdown deepened to -3.2% y/y, from -0.4% y/y in September.
Manufacturing segment overall expanded 2.7% y/y in October. Sberbank expects stronger results in November and December "thanks to last year's extremely low base (output in the segment was down 1% and 1.6% y/y last November and December), which was attributable largely to a reduction in military expenditures."
27 RUSSIA Country Report December 2018 www.intellinews.com