Page 8 - Small Stans Outlook 2024

2.0 Macroeconomic 2.1 Macro - Kyrgyzstan
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting 2023 GDP growth for oil importer Kyrgyzstan of 3.4%. Kyrgyzstan (2022 GDP: 6.3%) was also expected to record economic growth of 4.3% in 2024. The projections were made in the Fund’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2023 edition.
The Fund also assessed that, while annual inflation in Kyrgyzstan in 2022 climbed to 13.9%, it would in 2023 come in at around 11.7% before declining to around 8.6% in 2024.
Looking at the current account balance, Kyrgyzstan, which recorded a 2022 deficit of 46.5% of GDP, could expect figures of 20% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2024, according to the IMF.
In late November, Kyrgyzstan’s annual GDP exceeded the mark of one KGS1 trillion for the first time ever, the economy and trade ministry announced. A figure of KGS1.021 trillion ($11.46bn) was reported for the year to date. The World Bank estimated that Kyrgyzstan’s GDP stood at $10.9bn in 2022.
Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Akylbek Zhaparov noted: "GDP per capita in dollar terms has reached $1,900 in 2023, up from $1,665 last year, an increase of $669 over the past three years, compared with a $311 increase over the 10-year period from 2010 to 2020."
Local economist Kubanychbek Idinov told Vesti.kg he believed the country’s fight against corruption has boosted GDP by shrinking the shadow economy.
The World Bank on December 18 sounded a warning that remittance flows to Central Asia are on the wane. Remittance flows to its Europe and Central Asia region were estimated by the institution to have declined by 1.4% to $78bn in 2023. That’s bad news for Kyrgyzstan, where remittances account for around 28% of GDP and were estimated as down 25% year on year in 9M23 by the UN World Food Programme.
The World Bank advised: “The subdued growth in 2023 is due mainly to an unusually high base level posted in 2022, driven by huge amounts of money transfers from Russia, and a lingering weakness in flows to Russia and Ukraine. Depreciation of the Russian ruble against the US dollar has also decreased the value of money transfers from Russia.”
8 Small Stans 2023
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