Page 10 - Small Stans Outlook 2024

*See third row from bottom for Kyrgyz Republic 2.2 Macro - Tajikistan
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting 2023 GDP growth for oil importer Tajikistan of 6.5%. Tajikistan (2022 GDP: 8.0%) was also expected to record economic growth of 5.0% in 2024. The projections were made in the Fund’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2023 edition.
In 2022 migrants sent a record $5.2bn to Tajikistan from Russia, with the amount equivalent to 49% of the republic’s GDP; but the World Bank on December 18 sounded a warning that remittance flows to Central Asia are on the wane. Such flows to its Europe and Central Asia region were estimated by the institution to have declined by 1.4% to $78bn in 2023.
The World Bank advised: “The subdued growth in 2023 is due mainly to an unusually high base level posted in 2022 driven by huge amounts of money transfers from Russia, and a lingering weakness in flows to Russia and Ukraine. Depreciation of the Russian ruble against the US dollar also decreased the value of money transfers from Russia.”
Looking at annual inflation in Tajikistan, Central Asia’s poorest country, the IMF said 2022’s 6.6% would likely be followed by 4.6% in 2023 and 5.7% in 2024. As for the current account balance, the 2022 surplus of 15.6% of GDP looks set to be followed by deficits of 3.7% of GDP in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024.
Tajikistan remains highly sensitive to external and internal shocks, such as geopolitical uncertainty in the region and slow implementation of structural reforms, especially in state-owned enterprise performance and dynamism in the private sector.
“To accomplish the goals outlined in the National Development Strategy 2030, Tajikistan must address the obstacles that are impeding its economic growth
10 Small Stans 2023
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