Page 12 - Small Stans Outlook 2024

*See third row from bottom for Tajikistan
2.3 Macro - Turkmenistan
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting 2023 GDP growth for gas and oil exporter Turkmenistan of 2.5%. Turkmenistan (2022 GDP: 1.6%) is also expected by the IMF to record economic growth of 2.1% in 2024. The projections were made in the Fund’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2023 edition. As always with Turkmenistan, energy prices will be key.
Anticipating the trajectory of annual inflation in Turkmenistan, a country with an official population of more than 7mn (though there are huge doubts about the veracity of that figure, just as there are concerning any official data issued by the regime: note that in October the IMF issued a report using Turkmenistan as a banner example of a country that produces misleading official figures), the IMF said 2022’s 11.2% would likely be followed by 5.9% in 2023 and 10.5% in 2024.
As for the current account balance, the 2022 surplus of 7.1% of GDP would probably be followed by surpluses of 3.4% of GDP in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024, it added.
In August, Fitch Ratings affirmed Turkmenistan's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+' with a Positive Outlook, saying the rating was supported by Turkmenistan's very strong sovereign balance sheet, with the lowest level of public debt and highest sovereign net foreign assets (SNFA)/GDP in its peer group, underpinned by the world's fourth-largest gas reserves.
The ratings firm said Turkmen SNFA rose from $30bn at end-2021 to near $40bn at end-1H23 (50% of GDP, compared with the 'B' median of minus 25%).
12 Small Stans 2023
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