Page 5 - AfrElec Week 09 2021

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

IEA warns emissions

dip failed to last

Global energy-related emissions fell by 5.8% in 2020, but a sharp recovery at the end of
the year indicates that emissions are already rising again, writes Richard Lockhart

ASIA GLOBAL energy-related CO2 emissions fell by whole. But on a monthly basis, after hitting their
5.8% in 2020 as the coronavirus (COVID-19) lowest levels in the spring, they started to bounce
WHAT: pandemic pushed down demand, but emissions back.
Global energy-related bounced back quickly after the March fall. In December, emissions were approaching
CO2 emissions fell The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the level seen in the same month in 2019.
by 5.8% in 2020, but this week that an economic recovery and a lack of
recovered in H2 clean energy policies meant that emissions levels Transport and power
recovered quickly. The emissions fall accompa- The IEA said that the 5.8% decline in 2020 emis-
WHY: nied a 4% decline in primary energy demand. sions represented a fall of 2bn tonnes. Lower
The pandemic pushed IEA executive director Fatih Birol warned demand from transport, especially road and
down demand, but there that the recovery in emissions, with December aviation, accounted for 1.1bn tonnes. However,
was a lack of clean emissions being 2% higher than in December as transport resumes, oil consumption for trans-
energy policies as the 2019, suggested a “return to carbon-intensive port will rise again.
economy recovered business-as-usual.” The drop in road transport accounted for
“The rebound in global carbon emissions 50% of the decline in global oil demand, and the
WHAT NEXT: toward the end of last year is a stark warning slump in the aviation sector for around 35%, the
Without major policy that not enough is being done to accelerate clean IEA said.
changes in the largest energy transitions worldwide. If governments The record rise in sales of electric vehicles
economies, global don’t move quickly with the right energy poli- (EVs) is insufficient to offset the growth in emis-
emissions will almost cies, this could put at risk the world’s historic sions caused by the uptick in road traffic around
certainly rise in 2021 opportunity to make 2019 the definitive peak in the world.
global emissions,” said Birol. The power sector saw its emissions fall by
450mn tonnes, or 3.3%, driven by lower elec-
Rebound tricity demand but also from increases in solar
The IEA warned that although a growing num- PV and wind generation.
ber of countries and companies have pledged to The share of renewables in global electricity
reach net-zero emissions by mid-century, the generation rose from 27% in 2019 to 29% in
rebound in emissions shows what is likely to 2020, the biggest annual increase on record.
happen if those ambitions are not met with rapid Indeed, renewables accelerated their expan-
and tangible action. sion in 2020, with a 50% increase in their con-
December 2020 emissions were 60mn tonnes tribution to lowering power sector emissions
higher than those in December 2019. relative to 2019.
In terms of countries, emissions in China for
the whole of 2020 increased by 0.8%, or 75mn Looking ahead
tonnes, from 2019 levels. All this makes for gloomy predictions for 2021.
China was the first major economy to “If current expectations for a global economic
emerge from the pandemic and lift restrictions, rebound this year are confirmed – and in the
prompting its economic activity and emissions absence of major policy changes in the world’s
to rebound from April onward. China was the largest economies – global emissions are likely
only major economy that grew in 2020. to increase in 2021,” Birol said.
In India, emissions rose above 2019 levels Indeed, without major policy changes in the
from September as economic activity improved largest economies, global emissions will almost
and restrictions were relaxed. certainly rise in 2021.
In Brazil, the rebound of road transport The report concluded that what happens
activity after the April low drove a recovery in oil to energy demand and emissions in 2021 and
demand, while increases in gas demand in the beyond will depend on how much emphasis gov-
later months of 2020 pushed emissions above ernments put on clean energy transitions in their
2019 levels throughout the final quarter. efforts to boost their economies in the coming
In the US, emissions fell by 10% in 2020 as a months. ™

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