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also note the significant economic impact from Russian attacks on energy infrastructure facilities, port blockades, and damage to metallurgical plants. UN economists believe that the promised €18B in macro-financial assistance from the EU for 2023 may not be enough. In addition, they did not dare to make an economic forecast for Ukraine for 2023 and 2024 due to significant situational uncertainty. As for the global economy, experts predict a slowdown in growth from 3% in 2022 to 1.9% in 2023, which will be one of the lowest rates in recent decades.
The NBU’s 2023 GDP growth forecast has decreased from 4% in October to 0.3% in January. The head of the National Bank, Andriy Pyshnyy, explained that the lowered estimate is due to the consequences of energy terrorism and a revision of the primary assumption regarding the duration of security risks. At the same time, the National Bank improved its inflation expectations - the growth of consumer prices by the end of 2023 will amount to 18.7% (in October, the forecast was 20.8%). The size estimate for Ukraine’s international reserves has also changed positively. It is assumed that by the end of the year, it will amount to $27B, which is $5.3B higher than the October forecast. With the already announced international aid volume and the progress in IMF negotiations, external financing may exceed $38B in 2023. This will avoid emergency financing of the budget deficit and maintain international reserves at a sufficient level.
3.2 Macro outlook
The World Bank predicts the second global recession in the last 10 years and lowered its forecast for global GDP this year to 1.7%. The World Bank almost halved its global economic growth forecast in 2023 to 1.7% and, in 2024, to 2.7%, according to the World Bank report. It notes that global economic growth is slowing sharply amid higher inflation, higher interest rates,
22 UKRAINE Country Report February 2023 www.intellinews.com