Page 9 - bne IntelliNews Turkey Outlook 2024

2.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro Indicators
2019
2020
2021
2022
Q1-23
Q2
Q3
Q4
2023
GDP Growth (y/y, %)
0.9
1.8
11.0
5.6
4.0
3.9
5.9
-
-
Electricity Consumption (y/y)
-0.6
0.1
12.4
-1.0
-5.3
-4.3
6.3
3.2
0.1
Employed (active, mn)
26.7
24.1
27.0
29.3
29.5
28.6
30.9
-
-
Population (mn)
83.2
83.6
84.7
85.3
-
-
-
-
-
GDP (per capita, $)
9,127
8,599
9,539
10,655
-
-
-
-
-
GDP (current, TRYbn)
4,318
5,047
7,209
15,007
4,632
5,505
7,681
-
-
GDP (current prices, $bn)
760
717
803
906
245
272
296
-
-
Inflation (y/y, %, eop, Nov)
11.8
14.6
36.1
64.3
50.5
38.2
61.5
64.8
64.8
Lira-loans (%, y/y)
13.9
43.3
20.4
80.4
86.1
73.1
66.2
53.7
53.7
Policy Rate (%, active, eop)
11.4
17.0
14.0
9.0
8.5
15.0
30.0
42.5
42.5
CA Balance ($bn, Oct)
1.67
-35.5
-14.9
-48.8
-23.6
-12.4
-4.1
-
-
CA Balance/GDP (%)
0.2
-5.0
-1.9
-5.4
-9.6
-4.6
-1.4
-
-
Budget (TRYbn, Nov)
-124
-173
-192
-139.1
-250.0
-233.2
-29.4
-
-
Budget Balance/GDP (%)
-2.9
-3.4
-2.7
-0.9
-5.4
-4.2
-0.4
-
-
USD/TRY (eop)
5.95
7.44
13.3
18.7
19.2
26.1
27.4
29.5
29.5
It is not advisable to plan, price or draw inferences based on Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat) data. There is widespread concern about the reliability of Turkey’s official data series.
Turkey led the global inflationary period in the post-COVID monetary expansion era; currently it is leading the stagflation, or "slumpflation", period.
3.1 GDP growth
Turkey’s official gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.9% year
on year in 3Q23, TUIK said on November 30.
On September 6, in the government's new medium-term economic programme (OVP), Turkey’s finance minister Mehmet Simsek pencilled in a 2023 growth target of 4.4% and a 2024 rate of 4%.
On August 31, bne IntelliNews noted: “Simsek, who is concentrating on
9 Turkey Outlook 2024 www.intellinews.com