Page 7 - bne IntelliNews Turkey Outlook 2024

supporting a continuation of the Erdogan regime. Don’t let the noise fool you.
Erdogan’s health
The physical and mental performances of Erdogan (who will turn 70 at the end of February) certainly remain somewhat volatile. He can at any time go missing from public view for a few days. He shows some physical difficulties in front of the cameras.
Never forget
“Scientists are sounding the alarm over how much damage could be inflicted by a big earthquake that strikes Istanbul, a city of at least 15mn full of unregulated construction and old building stock.”
Longer term
Turkey never solves its problems and steadily becomes more and more gangrenous. It is among the “semi-colony” prototypes, typically referred to as EMs, in the post-World War II global system existing under the US hegemony.
Throughout the post-World War II era, Turkey’s economic and political cycles, in parallel with those of its peers, have continuously alternated between a good period and a bad period.
The intervals generally last a decade (or are a little bit longer or shorter), while the financial cycles have got dramatically shorter during the last decade.
A period arrives that brings an inflow of dollars. The Turks then object that the country is developing too far, too quickly. Then, during the next period, the dollars disappear and Turkey returns to the point from where it came (for instance, Turkey more or less had food security in 2002, but it lost this thanks to a period of so-called rapid development). And this repeats.
Since 2020, the dollars have flooded out. Now, they will return. The first market shake-up will arrive a few months after the capital flows stabilise.
The developments ahead will turn on the continuation of the current market-friendly stance or on shocks (seen before, for example, with the firing of a series of central bank governors).
The financial and political cycles generally occur simultaneously. However, they can differentiate through some periods.
7 Turkey Outlook 2024 www.intellinews.com