Page 6 - bne IntelliNews Turkey Outlook 2024

Ekrem Imamoglu is due to run for re-election in Istanbul (the city represents 16mn of Turkey’s 85mn-strong population). If he and his new party chair manage to gather together the "coalition impossible", which for Imamoglu's 2019 Istanbul victory brought together everyone across the spectrum of opposition politics from the Turkists to the Kurdists, then the Imamoglu camp will once again be credited with pulling off an unlikely feat.
Under Ozel’ predecessor, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition were heading for a guaranteed beating in the local elections. Now, at least, they have some hope.
A reasonable view anticipates that the CHP's Ankara (population: 6mn) mayor Mansur Yavas will hold on to his post. Izmir (4mn) amounts to CHP private-registered land. In Adana (2mn), another CHP mayor, Zeydan Karalar, could also win re-election.
Bursa (3mn), Konya (2mn), Urfa (2mn), Antep (2mn) and Kocaeli (2mn) will remain in the hands of the Erdogan regime. Antalya (3mn), currently held by the CHP, always swings.
In the local elections, the "thievery margin" seen in the national election vote counting breakdowns is not big enough. The real thievery in a general election turns on actions taken in rural areas. You might hear of the regime claiming it attracted 100% of the vote in a village. Are you going to go there to verify it if you don't believe it?
The ballot boxes not scrutinised by opposition polling station appointees represent around 30% of all ballot boxes. Regime operatives distribute their votes as they wish. And the end result is always something like 52% for the regime.
Foreign policy
In foreign politics, Erdogan might be a “troublesome kid”, but he turns out to be a “good kid” suitable for various ends in the final analysis. The approval of the Swedish accession to Nato or the hurling of insults at Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu do not mean much when it comes to business.
Nato is in any case already working with Sweden. And Erdogan secures almost half of Israel’s oil needs with deliveries transited from Azerbaijan and Northern Iraq.
It should be reiterated that the major players of the United Nations, ranging from the US to China, remain part of a global consensus
6 Turkey Outlook 2024 www.intellinews.com