Page 5 - bne IntelliNews Turkey Outlook 2024

1.0 Political outlook
Across recent years, bne Intellinews has been parroting: “If Turkey cannot manage to somehow smoothly get rid of the Erdogan regime, nothing would be a surprise amid the turmoil engulfing the country. Erdogan could at any time engage in wars, fuel violence at home, create more economic dilemmas, announce he is moving against another attempt at a ‘coup’, or conspire in and engender many other things that we can scarcely imagine at the moment.”
Prior to the presidential elections held in May 2023, anti-regime Turks (who are certainly in a majority) had high hopes of dumping their main problem, their leader of two decades. However, the so-called opposition failed once again to exercise sufficient monitoring of the ballot boxes.
The Erdogan regime declared another victory. The opposition (which hardly merits the title) played its role as notary. They turned tail once again and disappeared. When the rival force meekly confirms the election results as valid, there is not much to be done.
Turkey’s regime does not claim a massive “80%” victory in elections (as the Putin regime does) since Ankara is dependent on external borrowing. In other words, it always needs to source plenty of dollars.
Thus the Erdogan henchmen stage some theatre (the observer, for instance, can expect a “49%” victory in the first presidential voting round and a “52%” triumph in the second round) that, from space, looks like a genuine contest.
The state of the opposition within Turkey remains heart-wrenching. It should be reiterated that there is no place for opponents of the autocracy in this political theatre.
The opposition is made up of actors who, when push comes to shove, do not question the regime. If a UK allegory is employed for the sake of highlighting the telling difference, it could be said that they are “His Majesty’s Opposition”; they are not republicans.
Again, when observed from space, it appears that there is a proper opposition within the political system of the country. But it is not the case.
Local Elections: March 31
On March 31, Turkey will hold local elections. The opposition voters, who have suffered an unbroken sequence of disillusioning episodes across the last decade, are not excited by the new chair of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), namely Ozgur Ozel.
5 Turkey Outlook 2024 www.intellinews.com