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Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD mn) 92,759.58 (Sep 2021)
Gross National Product (USD mn) 833,301.44 (2020)
Gross Savings Rate (%) 48.0 (Sep 2021)
Source: CEIC Data
3.2 Macroeconomic outlook
IMF anticipates 3% growth for Iran in 2022
Iran’s economy remains on path of gradual recovery says World Bank
Iran can expect GDP growth of 3% this year and 2% in 2023, according to the latest projection of the IMF released in its spring World Economic Outlook update, entitled “War sets back the global recovery”.
Those rates would follow last year’s 4%, the Fund said.
As for official inflation, the Fund sees 32.3% this year and 27.5% next year, compared to 2021’s 40.1%.
For the current account balance as a percentage of GDP, the IMF determined last year’s 2%% will be followed by 3.5% this year and 2% in 2023.
Official unemployment would remain at around 10% across this year and next, also according to the Fund’s forecasting.
The estimates might be subject to substantial change should Iran, the US and five other major powers find a path to restarting the 2015 nuclear deal that would lift heavy sanctions on Tehran. Iranian oil, for instance, could then freely flow to buyers across export markets.
In the introduction to its update, the IMF wrote: “Global economic prospects have worsened significantly since our last World Economic Outlook forecast in January. At the time, we had projected the global recovery to strengthen from the second quarter of this year after a short-lived impact of the Omicron variant. Since then, the outlook has deteriorated, largely because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—causing a tragic humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe—and the sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to end hostilities.
“This crisis unfolds while the global economy was on a mending path but had not yet fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, with a significant divergence between the economic recoveries of advanced economies and emerging market and developing ones. In addition to the war, frequent and wider-ranging lockdowns in China—including in key manufacturing hubs—have also slowed activity there and could cause new bottlenecks in global supply chains. Higher, broader, and more persistent price pressures also led to a tightening of monetary policy in many countries. Overall risks to economic prospects have risen sharply and policy trade-offs have become ever more challenging.”
Iran’s economy remains on the path of a gradual recovery that started in mid-2020, driven by the oil sector and services, the World Bank said on April 14 in its spring economic update for the Middle East and North Africa.
Water and energy shortages have, however, caused a contraction of the
18 IRAN Country Report June 2022 www.intellinews.com