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The CBI, meanwhile, has given a figure of 6.2% for Iran’s GDP growth in the first three months of the Iranian year, official news outlet PressTV has reported. The figure was 4.7% excluding oil.
The central bank reportedly calculated the data against prices of 2016, using that year as a base year because the Iranian rial was firm against international currencies in that year.
On September 19, bne IntelliNews published analysis making the case that Iran’s economy is often wrongly seen as heavily reliant on hydrocarbon sales. According to the article: “We can start with the big picture, and kill an early assumption. Iran is not a hydrocarbon economy. Even in their un-sanctioned state hydrocarbons value-add rarely rose above 20% of GDP and for most of the time hydrocarbons contributed around 15% of GDP – far lower than the 40-80% levels which prevail in the true hydrocarbon economies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Venezuela.
“In its (present) sanctioned state hydrocarbons account for less than 10% of Iran’s GDP. To put this in perspective, 12% of the UK’s economy is generated by tourism, but no-one would describe the UK as a tourist-dependent economy.”
Iran’s industrial production decreased 1.6% y/y in the third quarter of 2021, compared to a rise of 9.1% and 5.8 y/y in the first and second quarters of 2021, respectively.
4.2 Inflation
4.2.1 CPI dynamics
Iran’s wheat subsidy cut triggers dramatic flour price rise ‘that could spark social unrest’
A dramatic rise in the price of flour in Iran is reportedly leading to concerns that the authorities' recent decision to halt subsidies for imported wheat could lead to social unrest.
The government ended subsidies for imported wheat on May 1. The cost of flour subsequently soared by around 500%. The price is expected to rise further, meaning even more pain for consumers dealing with rising bread, pasta and other flour-based product price rises.
RFE/RL reported on May 6 that the Student Basij, a subgrouping of the Basij militia that is a branch of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has
20 IRAN Country Report June 2022 www.intellinews.com