Page 46 - RusRPTOct20

The accumulated corporate losses in the conservative scenario will restrain recovery of profits and, as a result, of investment activity. "Amid this environment growth rates of fixed investment are projected at the level of 3.7% in 2021 and around 4.5% in the mid-term," according to the outlook.
It estimates growth of retail trade and charged services to consumers in 2021 in the conservative scenario at 4.5% and 5.6%, respectively, whereas in 2022-2023 both will continue growth by 2-2.3%.
The conservative option of the macroeconomic outlook also suggests oil prices in the range of $43-45 per barrel in the mid-term amid weak energy demand.
The sectors ensuring investment expansion, export-oriented manufacturing industries, IT, construction and transport sectors are expected to become Russia’s economic growth drivers in 2021-2023, according to the country’s social and economic development outlook for 2021 and the planned period of 2022 and 2023 presented by the Economic Development Ministry.
"In terms of sectors, economic growth drivers in 2021-2023 will be sectors ensuring the investment development pattern, export-oriented manufacturing sectors, IT, construction and transport sectors, as well as real estate and professional services," according to the outlook.
Growth rates in the base sectors (excluding mineral production) will rise to 3.6-4.1% in 2021-2023 after a decrease of 5.3% in 2020. Meanwhile export-oriented sectors (chemical industry, food sector, wood processing) will become growth leaders. Moreover, the increasing investment activity coupled with a surge of non-commodities and non-energy exports, will support accelerated development of engineering.
"That said, growth rates in the extracting industry will be moderate in 2021 - 1.2% (in 2020 - decrease by 8.4%) amid the influence of weak external demand and the current terms of the OPEC+ deal through 2022," the ministry said. It expects growth rate in the extracting industry to speed up to the peak level of 4.7% in 2022 amid the projected growth of crude oil production with further stabilization.
46 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ October 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com