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4.0 Real Economy
Key macroeconomic indicators
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2M20 2020e
GDP -2.5 -0.2 1.6 2.3 1.3 - -2.7
Industrial output -0.8 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.3 2.2 -6.3
Retail trade -10 -4.6 1.3 2.8 1.6 3.7 -3.8
Inflation (EOP) 12.9 5.4 2.5 4.3 3 2.3 5
Real wages -9.5 0.6 2.9 6.8 2.9 6.5* -6.7
Current account, $ bn 69.6 25 35.2 114.9 70.6 16 45
Budget deficit, % of GDP -2.5 -3.4 -1.4 2.7 1.8 -1.7 -1.7
RUB/USD (avg) 61.1 67.1 58.3 62.7 64.8 62.9 73.4
RUB/USD (EOP) 72.9 60.7 57.6 69.5 61.9 67 72
Brent $ / bbl (avg) 52.4 43.6 54.3 70.8 64.4 60 39
CBR rate 11 10 7.75 7.75 6.25 6 7.5 Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
4.1 Industrial production
In August, Russian industrial production posted a 7.2% y/y decline. August brought the 8M20 dynamic to -4.5% y/y. The data matched our forecast (-7%), but was lower than the consensus estimate (-6.2%). In seasonally adjusted terms, output in industry improved from -7.3% y/y in July to -7% last month.
Metals, car production and the oil and gas sector remained the main drags on industrial growth: in August, production of crude oil and natural gas fell 12% y/y, which pushed output in the resource sector down by 11.8% y/y. Contraction in the other two main segments of industry was much smaller: manufacturing industry fell by 4.1% y/y in August while output in utilities was down by 3.6% y/y. Apart from O&G, the other industrial segment with a major contraction was automotive (car production fell by 30% y/y). At the same time, a few industries posted y/y growth, including food-processing, chemical, textile and pharmaceutical.
48 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com
