Page 65 - RusRPTOct20

fact that fiscal stimulus is gradually tailing away (e.g. federal budget expenditures on social securities slowed to +17% YoY in July and +46% YoY in August, from an overwhelming +103% YoY in June). iii) The resumption in flights to three destinations (with one of them, namely Turkey, being the most popular tourist destination for Russians) from 1 August, as before then consumer demand within Russia had been underpinned by the limitation on travelling abroad.
Thus, while the multiplicity of varying factors (e.g. closed borders, deferred consumption, lockdown restrictions and fiscal stimulus) previously balanced each other out, the further recovery in consumer demand will, in our view, predominantly be determined by two factors: i) the strength of the underlying (structural) factors (e.g. the labour market); and ii) the degree of economic uncertainty and the persistence with which it weighs on consumer sentiment and affects the propensity to consume.
65 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ October 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com