Page 67 - RusRPTOct20

5.0​ External Sector & Trade 5.1​ External sector overview
Russia is still running twin surpluses of trade and current account (the federal budget went into deficit in the first half of this year) but both surpluses have been badly affected by the all in oil prices this year.
Oil prices were averaging circa $65 in December but collapsed to a low of an average of $21 in April before recovering to around $45 in the summer. However, as the autumn arrives oil prices slid again and briefly dropped below $40, reducing the revenues that Russia earns.
In the bowl of the crisis there were fears that the bottom would drop out of the oil market, especially after oil future contracts briefly went negative for the first time ever, but since then have recovered.
Given the Russian federal budget breaks even with oil prices at $42 even the currently low price of oil is not a disaster and Russia Inc continues to function.
The result is while it was thought that the current account might fall into deficit this year for the first time since the 90s, it is now assumed that it will end the year with a surplus of about $45bn, about half of last year’s level.
The trade balance in August fell to $4.3bn in the month, less than half the $11.3bn Russia made in August a year earlier.
67 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ October 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com