Page 192 - RusRPTAug24

IEA Improves Gas Production Forecast in Russia. In its previous report in April, the agency forecast growth to 670bn cubic meters. The Russian Ministry of Energy's forecast for 2024 is 667bn cubic meters. The IEA's updated forecast for 2024 also exceeds the 2022 figure, when gas production in Russia, according to the organization, amounted to 672bn cubic meters. In 2021, the country produced 762bn cubic meters of gas. The IEA explains the new forecast by the growth of Russian gas exports to China, Europe and Central Asian countries, as well as by the increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and the rise in gas demand in Russia. In January-June of this year, gas production in the country increased by more than 7%, the agency notes. The absolute value is not given in the report. Gas exports via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China increased by about 35% y/y in the first half of this year, according to the IEA. In 2024, supplies will reach 30bn cubic meters against 22.7bn in 2023, the report notes. Exports to Central Asia are growing due to the start of supplies to Uzbekistan in October 2023. Their volume is about 9mn cubic meters per day.
Slovakia, Austria and Moldova are the European nations most dependent on transit volumes, importing about 3.2 Bcm, 5.7 Bcmand 2.0 Bcm, respectively, in 2023. Last year, Russian gas passing through Ukraine supplied EU countries via entry points in Slovakia and Moldova. Moldova is adjusting its supply while having agreed with Ukraine on a continuous flow of Russian gas until the end of 2025, largely supplied to the pro-Russia separatist region of Transnistria. In 2023, the country imported 74% of its gas through Ukraine and, for the first time, received gas from Romania and the south through reverse flows via the Trans-Balkan pipeline. Italy's energy company Eni and Hungary also imported Russian gas through Ukraine, while Slovenia and Croatia have been smaller takers of Russian gas via Ukraine.
Rystad Energy predicts that Russia's gas will need to be rerouted to Europe
192 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com