Page 193 - RusRPTAug24

through alternative paths, requiring an additional 7.2 Bcm per year of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to replace the gas transiting Ukraine. Supply disruptions may occur sooner than initially expected, as indicated by the Austrian company OMV’s market warning in May.
Halting Russian gas pipeline flows via Ukraine would significantly impact countries relying on these volumes. For example, when the transit extension expires after 2025, Moldova would need to reroute its 2 Bcm supplied via Ukraine, possibly through reverse flows of the Trans-Balkan pipeline. To reach Moldova, Russian gas could use the Isaccea entry point between Romania and Ukraine, but a transit agreement for the short 25-kilometer distance through Ukraine would be required. The Trans-Balkan pipeline has been operated in reverse flow since the end of 2022, with 0.54 Bcm of gas entering Moldova via Ukraine from Romania through the Isaccea entry point in 2023. Additionally, gas from the Southern Gas Corridor in Azerbaijan, as well as from Turkish and Greek LNG import terminals, can reach Moldova via the south. When the Russia-Ukraine transit agreement ceases, the only alternative supply routes for Central and East European countries would be the Balkan Stream and the Horgos entry point between Serbia and Hungary.
Without Russian gas, Slovakia would find itself at the end of the flow chain, requiring about 4 Bcm of gas delivered through the Lanzhot entry point from Czechia. With additional regasification capacity in Poland only available in 2025, a zero-flow scenario may even entail reverse flows from Austria into Slovakia.
Austria, the largest offtaker of Russian gas in 2023, would pivot towards increasing imports from Germany via the Oberkappel entry point, expected to operate at a maximum annual capacity of 8 Bcm. However, for Rystad Energy’s baseline year of 2023, the import capacity at Oberkappel will not be sufficient to close the 8.53 Bcm import gap. Without short-term capacity adjustments, gas transits to Hungary would decline, and outflows to Italy would be stopped. If all Russian gas flows via Ukraine were to cease, Austria would need to import up to 2.5 Bcm from Italy via the Arnoldstein-Tarvisio crossing point.
Italy has several options to replace Russian gas pipelines and has largely achieved independence from the Ukrainian transit. However, the country would be required to source about 3.75 Bcm for Slovakia and Austria. These additional supplies could come from the Ravenna floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) —5 Bcm per year from 2025—and 1.23 Bcm from pipeline supplies through Tunisia.
Hungary would face large challenges in case of a complete halt of Russian gas flow through Ukraine. Assuming Moldova is supplied via the south, capacity via the Trans-Balkan pipeline from Romania would be fully
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