Page 65 - RusRPTAug24

below the established price ceiling and are cheaper than other comparable products.
The newest sanctions packages identify dozens of shadow vessels and bans them from EU ports. Based on assessment from Bloomberg and the global trade intelligence platform Kpler, most of these sanction-listed ships have ceased to operate. Kpler estimates that the tankers subject to sanctions earlier transported about 13 % of the volume of Russia crude oil exports. Russia appears to have found alternative tankers to replace the sanctioned vessels as the volume of crude oil exported by sea remains stable. If export volumes remain at current levels, Russia still earns from its oil exports hundreds of millions of dollars every day even if the price falls to the $60 level of the price ceiling.
EU imposes first restrictions on Russian natural gas exports in June, reports the Bank of Finland institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT). Natural gas exports have also been a fairly important revenue source for Russia. The EU had placed no restrictions on importing Russian gas prior to the latest sanctions package. Nevertheless, pipeline gas imports from Russia to the EU diminished sharply after Russia itself ceased to transmit gas to a number of EU countries in spring 2022. Russian pipeline gas is still imported to a few EU countries, including Austria and Hungary. In addition, many EU countries import Russian LNG.
The EU’s latest sanction package includes a ban on Russian exports of LNG via the EU to third countries. It is still permitted to import LNG into EU countries as long as the terminal is connected to the EU gas grid (e.g. Finland and Sweden are not integrated with the EU grid). In addition, the package bans new investment, as well as providing goods or services to current LNG projects in Russia.
Although Russia no longer publishes data on its LNG exports, the statistical reporting of importing countries make it possible to estimate the value of Russia’s LNG exports. Using this approach, last year’s LNG exports were worth about 18 billion dollars or 4 % of Russia’s total goods exports. Figures of the International Gas Union (IGU) indicate that about half of Russian LNG exports went to EU countries and the remainder mostly to Asia. The EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, Josep Borrell, says that about 20 % of the Russian LNG into the EU is re-exported to third countries outside the EU.
Sanctions limit Russia’s access to critical technologies, reports BOFIT. A core element in Western sanctions on Russia involve restrictions on exports of critical goods and services to Russia. All countries participating in sanctions regimes have banned the export of certain critical technologies, particularly technologies with potential military uses. These restrictions were further extended in the latest sanction packages.
Exports from sanctioning countries to Russia of goods subject to sanctions have dried up almost completely. While Russia has managed to substitute some of its lost imports with imports from other countries, estimates based on mirror trade statistics suggest that Russia has not been able to substitute all of its lost imports. If sanctioned goods are available from alternative suppliers,
65 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com