Page 87 - RusRPTAug24

Results of CBR’s July macroeconomic survey:
Analysts polled by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) in its July macroeconomic survey have again upgraded their outlook on the key rate, inflation and the country’s GDP growth, according to the regulator’s website.
The main takeaways are inflation will come in at 6.5%, higher than the previous estimate of 5.6%, and that growth this year will be stronger at 3.2%, more than the 2.8% previously forecast, but less than the 3.6% of growth last year.
In particular, inflation forecast has been upgraded to 6.5% for 2024 (+1 p.p. compared to May figures) and to 4.5% for 2025 (+0.3 p.p.). Analysts expect inflation to return to the target in 2026 and to remain at this level further on, TASS reported on July 17.
Analysts’ expectations on the average key rate have been upgraded over the whole horizon - to 16.8% per annum for 2024 (+0.9 p.p.), to 15% per annum for 2025 (+2.6 p.p.) and to 10.6% per annum for 2026 (+1.2 p.p.). The forecast for the end of horizon is 8% per annum. Median estimate of neutral key rate remained intact at 7.5% per annum.
GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been upgraded by 0.3 p.p. to 3.2% -- less than last year’s 3.6% growth. Analysts expect GDP to grow by 1.7-1.8% in 2025-2027. Median estimate of long-term growth rates has slightly increased to 1.6% (+0.1 p.p.). According to analysts’ forecasts, GDP growth in 2027 compared to 2021 will total +11.1%.
Moreover, analysts expect unemployment to go down to 2.6% in 2024 (-0.2 p.p.), up to 2.8% in 2025 (-0.2 p.p.) and return to the level of 2023 of 3% further on.
The outlook on the dollar/ruble exchange rate is 90.1 rubles per dollar for 2024, 95 rubles per dollar for 2025, 97.2 rubles per dollar for 2026, 98.9 rubles per dollar for 2027 (stronger by 1.1-2.4% compared to May).
The price of Brent crude oil is expected at $84 per barrel on average in 2024. Further on the price will decline and equal $80 per barrel in 2025 and $75 per barrel in 2026-2027 (outlook unchanged).
Below are the conclusions of the CBR’s July macroeconomic survey: The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators and somewhat widened for inflation and nominal wages. At the same time, the ranges for GDP growth, unemployment rate, $/RUB exchange rate, exports, imports, Brent oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period.
87 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com