Page 88 - RusRPTAug24

Inflation: Inflation forecast has been raised to 6.5% in 2024 (+1.0 pp compared to the May survey) and to 4.5% in 2025 (+0.3 pp). Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target in 2026 and remain at this level further on.
Key rate: Analysts have raised the average key rate forecast over the entire forecast horizon: to 16.8% per annum (+0.9 pp) for 2024, to 15.0% per annum (+2.6 pp) for 2025, to 10.6% per annum (+1.2 pp) for 2026. Analysts expect the key rate to reach 8.0% per annum by the end of the forecast horizon. The median estimate of the neutral key rate is unchanged at 7.5% per annum.
88 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com