Page 93 - RusRPTAug24

Brent oil price: No changes in forecast. According to analysts’ expectations, the average Brent oil price will total $84 per barrel in 2024. The price will then decrease to $80 per barrel in 2025 and to $75 per barrel in 2026-2027.
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Annual GDP in Russia moved up by 3% year on year in June after the rise by 4.5% in May, the Ministry of Economic Development said in its review.
"According to the estimate of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, the GDP was 3.0% year on year above the last year level in June 2024 after 4.5% year on year in May, which is largely associated with the calendar factor (there were two less working days in June 2024 than in June 2023)," the ministry said.
Analysts polled by the Russian Central Bank have again upgraded their outlook on the key rate, inflation and the country’s GDP growth, according to information published on the regulator’s website on July 17.
In particular, inflation forecast has been upgraded to 6.5% for 2024 (+1 p.p. compared to May figures) and to 4.5% for 2025 (+0.3 p.p.). Analysts expect inflation to return to the target in 2026 and to remain at this level further on.
93 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com