Page 95 - RusRPTAug24

with a mixed picture on sectors. The possibilities for expanding labor supply are limited by negative demographic trends. Such a situation incites the rates of wage growth much higher than labor productivity, which creates additional proinflation risks," analysts said.
Russian economy shows high growth rates amid partial slowdown in consumer demand. The index of output for goods and services in core economic activities increased by 6.5% y/y in May, maintaining a comparable growth rate (6.5% y/y) for the period from January to May, despite a relatively high base from the previous year.
Over the past 12 months, the output index grew by 6.9%, exceeding the pre-crisis peak of February 2022 by exactly 6%, returning to the trend of 2017-2019.
The Russian Ministry of Economic Development estimates Russia's GDP growth in May at +4.5% y/y after +4.4% y/y in April, with an approximate growth of 5% y/y since the beginning of the year. This is a particularly strong result given the relatively high comparison base of 2022.
Key points of economic performance:
- The growth rate of construction work accelerated to +7% y/y and +4.6% y/y since the beginning of the year.
- The volume of wholesale trade in May increased by +11.1% y/y and by +12.3% y/y since the beginning of the year.
- Agricultural output grew by +1% y/y in May, with a growth of +1.2% y/y since the beginning of the year.
- Cargo turnover slightly improved after a slump in early spring, showing a decline of 0.2% y/y in May and a drop of 0.2% y/y from January to May.
- However, the decrease in railway cargo turnover is significant at -3.8% y/y and -6% since the beginning of the year.
- The commissioning of residential buildings slightly decreased by 0.5% y/y to 7.1mn square meters, with a 1.3% y/y increase since the beginning of the year on a high base.
- The unemployment rate remains at a historic low of 2.6%, averaging 2.7% since the beginning of the year (approximately 2mn unemployed people over the age of 15, of which 0.4mn are officially registered).
Russia's GDP grew by 5% in the first five months of this year, which is significantly higher than forecast, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said at a meeting on economic issues.
"Today we will discuss the current situation in the economy. The dynamics remains high - in May growth accelerated slightly compared to April to 4.5%. If we take the statistics for five months, the gross domestic product increased by 5% compared to the same period last year. This is significantly higher than
95 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com