Page 97 - RusRPTAug24

3.2 Macro outlook
The CBR hiked its forecast for the country's GDP growth to 3.5-4% this year, at the end of July, adjusting its medium-term forecast at the same meeting. At the same time, the Central Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.5–1.5%. Previously, the figure was at 1–2%. The forecast for 2026 was reduced to 1–2% from the previously expected 1.5–2.5%. In 2027, the regulator expects economic growth in the range of 1.5–2.5%.
Russia’s GDP growth by the end of 2024 could reach 3.8%, Deputy Chairman and Chief Economist of VEB.RF Andrey Klepach said. "Most likely, 3.8%," he told TASS on the sidelines of the Innoprom forum and exhibition. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development said earlier that the national GDP moved up by 4.5% y/y in May 2024. "According to the estimate of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, GDP in May 2024 was +4.5% above the last-year level in annual terms after +4.4% in April," the ministry said. The national GDP surged by 5% in annual terms over January - May 2024.
The Russian Economic Development Ministry may increase its national GDP growth forecast for 2024 and has all reasons to do so, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told TASS Director General Andrey Kondrashov in an interview. "An assessment is now under way of how the economic situation will develop by the end of the year. The projection data is expected to be clarified by around September. But there are all reasons to believe that, if current trends remain, the growth will be higher than forecasted," he said on the sidelines of the Caucasus Investment Forum. In his words, the Economic Development Ministry is now verifying the data, based on the first six months of the year. In April, the ministry raised its Russian GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.8%.
Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, the IMF said in the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). Services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization. Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher for even longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty. The policy mix should thus be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.
97 RUSSIA Country Report August 2024 www.intellinews.com