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3.2 Macro outlook
The World Bank maintained its forecast for global economic growth for 2024, which amounted to 2.6%, with a slight increase expected in 2025-2026, according to the June report of the organization. According to the bank's experts, global economic growth is projected to remain at 2.6% in 2024 and in 2025-2026 will increase slightly to an average of 2.7%. At the same time, in 2024-2025, economic growth rates in developing countries will average 4%, which is slightly lower than in 2023. In 2024, global inflation is expected to slow down to 3.5% and to 2.9% in 2025, but this slowdown is not as significant as was expected six months ago, the report said. At the same time, the World Bank improved its forecasts for Russian GDP growth in 2024-2025. According to the bank's experts, in 2024 Russia’s economic growth will reach 2.9%, in 2025 - 1.4%, in 2026 - 1.1%. In April, the World Bank forecast the Russian economy to grow by 2.2% in 2024 and in 2025 - by 1.1%.
The World Bank improved its forecasts for Russian GDP growth in 2024-2025, according to the June World Bank report on the world economy. According to the bank's experts, in 2024 Russia’s economic growth will reach 2.9%, in 2025 - 1.4%, in 2026 - 1.1%. In April, the World Bank forecast the Russian economy to grow by 2.2% in 2024 and in 2025 - by 1.1%.
The targeted levels of 2.8-3% GDP growth are absolutely achievable in
Russia, with even higher growth possible, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
CBR governor Elvia Nabiullina listed four factors to ensure the stability of the Russian economy during a presentation at St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 5.
They are macroeconomic stability, the creation of a class of retail investors, the development of tools to maintain financial stability and the launch of a program to improve the banking system.
“The first is, of course, macroeconomic stability. We have gained experience, for example, of living in conditions of not very high inflation. By 2017, we reached 4% inflation, which many people had little faith in, and maintained it at this level for about five years... We also had long-term financing, mortgages then began to grow at a market rate of 8-9% and without expensive budget programs,” she said.
According to her, after the departure of foreign investors, the importance of retail investors has increased. Nabiullina noted that in 2018 there were “100,000 people in the country who entered the capital market,” and now there are 3.8mn people.
“We have experienced many crises, this forced us to create an extensive system of instruments that ensure financial stability. When a shock occurs, we
61 RUSSIA Country Report July 2024 www.intellinews.com