Page 62 - RusRPTJul24

can immediately reverse them and reduce the impact of shocks on the financial system,” she added.
Russia has risen to become the fourth largest economy in the world on a PPP (purchase power parity), according to the World Bank, a year earlier than demanded by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Nabiullina’s comments as the CBR released the May edition of its macroeconomic survey that shows the economy continues to stabilise, although not without feeling some pain from the international sanctions on Russia.
Each month the CBR surveys two dozen professional independent economists to aggregate their forecasts. The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for the key interest rate, unemployment rate, USD/RUB exchange rate, exports, imports, Brent oil price are significantly widening by the end of the forecast period.
Below are the CBR”s main conclusions in each category:
Inflation: Inflation forecast for 2024 has been raised to 5.5% (+0.3 pp compared to the April survey). Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target of close to 4% in 2025 and remain at this level further on.
Key rate: Analysts have raised the average key rate forecast over the entire forecast horizon: to 15.9% per annum (+1.0 pp) for 2024, to 12.4% per annum (+2.0 pp) for 2025, to 9.4% per annum (+1.3 pp) for 2026. This also reflects a higher estimate of the neutral key rate — 7.5% per annum (+0.5 pp).
62 RUSSIA Country Report July 2024 www.intellinews.com