Page 8 - TURKRptSep22

May: 132%, June: 138%, July: 145%.
The ENAG research group inflation figure remained at 176% y/y for
July.
The FAO food price index declined for the fourth consecutive month from 154 points in June to 141 in July, up 13% y/y (Record high: 159.7 in March).
As of August 30, Brent was up 41% y/y to $103 while Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures was higher by 609% y/y.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) was higher by 30% y/y at 125. The USD/Turkish lira (TRY) pair was up 118% y/y to 18.18.
● On July 28, the central bank hiked its expectation for end-2022 official inflation to 60% (upper limit: 64%) from the previous figure of 43% given in the April inflation report.
The authority expected inflation to peak at below the 90%-level in October and to sharply fall across the remainder of the year.
The guidance was based on the assumption that the Turkish lira (TRY) will not experience another crash. As of August 30, the USD/ TRY was up 2% compared to 17.9 on July 29.
● October 27: New quarterly inflation report and updated inflation forecasts will be released.
● September 5: Official inflation for Aug.
● September 22: Monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting decision at 14h (?) Istanbul time. It is absolutely unknown at the moment what the decision will be.
August 18: Cut by 100bp to 13%.
8 TURKEY Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com