Page 45 - bne IntelliNews magazine February 2025

bne February 2025 Eastern Europe I 45
Strategic outlook
The coming months are expected to
test both sides further, with weather conditions slowing operations in December. Russian forces continue
to press south of Pokrovsk, while Ukraine focuses on shoring up its manpower and leveraging technological advantages, including expanded long- range strike capabilities.
“Stabilising the front line is essential to buying time and forcing Moscow to reassess,” Kofman concluded. “But without addressing fundamental issues in training, mobilisation, and force structure, Ukraine risks further setbacks.”
Militarnyi predicts Russia will prioritise the capture of Kurakhove, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar in 2025 while pushing towards Dnipropetrovsk. Meanwhile, the West’s continued support for Ukraine, both militarily and economically, remains a crucial factor in shaping the outcome of the conflict.
Monthly territorial losses in 2024:
• June: 100 sq km (3.4 sq km/day)
• July: 160 sq km (5.2 sq km/day)
• August: 370 sq km (12 sq km/day)
• September: 400 sq km (13.4 sq km/day)
• October: 560 sq km (18.7 sq km/day)
• November: 610 sq km (20.3 sq km/day)
• December: 510 sq km (16.45 sq km/day)
Throughout 2024, Russian forces made significant advances across multiple fronts. In the Velyka Novosilka- Ocheretyne sector, more than 2,400 square kilometres were seized, with advances reaching 45 kilometres deep. Russian troops are now less than 10 kilometres from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Other hotspots include the New York- Siversk area, where over 335 square kilometres were taken, and the Lyman- Kupiansk front, where Russian forces
captured at least 479 square kilometres. In northern Kharkiv, Ukraine managed to reclaim some ground after initially losing 211 square kilometres during a Russian offensive in May.
Further south, Russia seized approximately 95 square kilometres
in Kherson Oblast, including areas around Krynky. In Zaporizhzhia, losses amounted to 97 square kilometres, primarily near Robotyne.
Outlook
“The front is not imploding, but Russian forces have increased their rate of
gain over July-December. The most problematic area is south of Pokrovsk. Following the fall of Avdiivka, then Vuhledar, RF forces have slowly taken important anchoring positions in Donetsk,” says Kofman.
Given the worsening military situation, the possibility of ceasefire talks has increased and the incoming President- elect Donald Trump has promised to end the war “in 24 hours” after his inauguration on January 20.
Ukraine is facing the prospect of a dramatic reduction in financial support from its Western partners and a fall in arms deliveries. The outgoing Biden
administration has tried to lock in as much in the form of military supplies as it can before it departs and analysts say that Ukraine will probably have enough equipment and ammo to be able to continue to fight on in 2025, but after that the outlook for sufficient support worsens.
Despite gains in drone capabilities and improved fortifications, the rising costs of maintaining a coherent defence strategy weigh heavily on Ukraine’s prospects as the conflict enters another critical year.
Kofman argues that you could view the current situation positively as Ukraine is grinding down Russian forces and Russia’s gains are small relative to costs. But Ukraine also can’t sustain more losses and the coldest part of winter is still ahead.
“But the current situation requires course correction. Spinning the prevailing dynamic as positive strikes me as unhelpful,” says Kofman. “Increased long-range strike capability alone is unlikely to compel Russia to negotiate as long as RF keeps making gains along the front, and is increasing its own strike capacity. Stabilising the front line is essential to buying time and forcing Moscow to reassess.”
Russia took more territory in the second half of 2024 than at any time since the invasion in 2022, but a heroic defence and improving weapons supplies has allowed the Armed Forces of Ukraine to stave off a disaster. / bne IntelliNews
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