Page 57 - bne IntelliNews magazine February 2025

bne February 2025
Opinion 57
such as the UAE joining BRICS in 2024 and strategic dialogue within OPEC+, underscores the alignment of economic interests but stops short of solidifying a formal alliance.
A calculated neutrality
On the geopolitical front, the Arab GCC nations navigate
a delicate balance. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE
avoid openly criticising Moscow, Kuwait and Qatar have condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Diplomatic circles
in the Persian Gulf continue to prioritise their alliance
with the United States, demonstrating restraint in sanction circumvention when US pressure mounts. As Kozhanov highlights, “The GCC does not see Ukraine as ‘their’ conflict.” Instead, economic stability, energy security and the reshaping of US regional influence dominate their calculus.
The GCC’s policies towards Moscow are shaped by the region’s shifting relationship with Washington. Limited US responses to regional security crises and threats like the NOPEC bill have pushed Gulf states to diversify their partnerships while maintaining strong US ties. This balancing act extends to Russia, with GCC nations willing to engage economically, provided it does not harm relations with the West.
The fear of sanctions mechanisms, such as the EU’s price cap on Russian oil, being replicated against them also aligns Gulf monarchies with Moscow’s positions. Yet such alignment remains tactical, aimed at maximising economic benefit and minimising exposure to global energy volatility.
Not allies but strategic partners
Essentially, the GCC’s interaction with Russia demonstrates strategic pragmatism rather than an attempt to form alliances and follows that of Iran, which has also become closer to Moscow in recent years with its observer member status in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and membership of BRICS along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
“Economic and political collaboration is based on mutual advantages rather than ideological similarities”
Economic and political collaboration is based on mutual advantages rather than ideological similarities. It is improbable that this relationship will develop into a strong partnership or an alliance, as both sides know the more considerable geopolitical limitations and their individual national interests.
Future changes will hinge on developments in global energy patterns, the shifting role of the US in the Gulf region and the capacity of both parties to adjust to a more multipolar global landscape. While the GCC may continue to act as a “fellow traveller” alongside Russia, the relationship is expected to remain pragmatic, transactional and limited.
The GCC has embraced Russia as its relations with the US sour, but the Arab powers are still holding Russia at arm’s length. / bne IntelliNews
www.bne.eu