Page 63 - bne IntelliNews magazine February 2025

bne February 2025
while Czech populist leader Andrej Babis will be even more confident of returning to power this autumn.
The number of European Council members with a strong radical or far right presence is already close to a blocking minority and that point looks almost certain to be reached in the near future.
This trend was confirmed this month when the centre-right Austrian People’s Party (OVP) agreed to open negotiations on taking part in a government led by the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPO). The scandal-ridden FPO, which was formed by Austrian Nazis after the war, plays with Nazi dog whistle slogans, promotes hostility towards immigrants, campaigns against the EU, and has had longstanding links with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
In a first for the party, the FPO came top in Austria’s general election last September with 29%, ahead of the country’s two traditional main parties, the OVP with 26% and the Austrian Social Democrats (SPO) with 21%.
Three month-long negotiations between the OVP and the SPO to keep the FPO out collapsed earlier this month, prompting the resignation of OVP Chancellor Karl Nehammer. Liberal President Alexander Van der Bellen felt he had no alternative than to nominate FPO leader Hubert Kickl as premier. Under its new leader Christian Stocker, the OVP has indicated that it is now willing to serve under Kickl.
“There is the danger of bilateral responses, what we have to offer to the new king of America. Everyone is looking how we can please this guy”
The FPO has taken part in Austrian coalitions before but if such a government is formed, this would be the first time it will be calling the shots. The days when the OVP and the SPO were able to divide up power are well and truly over.
An FPO-led government would have serious implications
for EU policymaking, notably on Ukraine and Russia, where already Hungary and Slovakia criticise the bloc’s approach. The FPO is so suspect on Russia that when Kickl was interior minister between 2017-19 in an OVP-led government, Nato allies were forced to cut intelligence ties with Austria because of the risks of leaks to the Kremlin.
“Kickl has kept his powder dry on Russia but his policy positions are very Russia-friendly,” says Marcus How of VE Insight, a Vienna-based investment risk advisory. “Kickl
is opposed to sanctions, and especially opposed to aid to Ukraine within the European Peace Facility. He is even
Opinion 63 sceptical of non-lethal aid to Ukraine, and opposed to
[hosting] Ukrainian refugees.”
Kickl could be a stalwart ally for Orban, How argues, because Austria is not reliant on EU aid. “Kikl is not like Fico, as
he can’t easily be held over a barrel. He is much more ideological, he will be a much more reliable figure for Orban.”
If the FPO is able to form a government, it will give a boost to the EU’s far right and radical right parties, whose rise
was highlighted by last summer’s European Parliamentary elections. Kickl would join Orban and Italy’s Georgia Meloni as far-right premiers in the EU, and he could be joined by Babis after the Czech elections this autumn.
If that were to happen, all the core parts of the old Habsburg Empire – Austria, Czechia and Hungary, together with Slovakia – would be controlled by populist Eurosceptic parties.
An FPO-led Austria could also have a knock-on effect on Germany, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is in second place in opinion polls ahead of the general election on February 23. “Will the Austrian government become some kind of template for the far right in Germany?” How ponders.
The rise of the FPO in Austria is mirrored by the rise of the far right in the European Parliament. After last June’s European Parliament elections, Kickl was one of the founders of the Patriots for Europe grouping, together with Orban and Babis. They have subsequently been joined by France’s National Rally, Italy’s Lega, Spain’s Vox, Netherland’s PVV, Belgium’s Vlaams Belang and the Danish People’s Party, becoming the third largest grouping in the parliament.
Several of these parties are already in government, notably Hungary’s Fidesz (leading the government since 2010), and Italy’s Lega and the Dutch PVV, both as part of coalitions.
Italian premier Meloni’s Brothers of Italy has yet to join the grouping but is close to Orban. More worryingly, France’s National Rally is widely expected to win the next presidential election in 2027, if it is not held earlier.
Alongside the Patriots for Europe is the even more extreme Europe of Sovereign Nations group, which includes the AfD, which is expected to come second in the German federal election next month, ahead of the ruling Social Democrats.
Both party groups are likely to become noisier and more obstructive following Trump’s victory.
This populist surge comes as the EU’s traditional leading political families – the Social Democrats and the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) – are suffering a prolonged crisis of confidence.
The EPP, to which the OVP belongs, is if anything undergoing
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